ANALISIS PERAMALAN BISNIS DALAM PENENTUAN RENCANA PRODUKSI

Abstract

Planning for future production needs is very important; therefore, production forecasting becomes crucial. By using the right forecasting methods, companies can better manage resources and reduce problems and risks arising from overproduction or underproduction. In this study, the author qualitatively explains forecasting methods for production by referring to relevant literature. Based on the research conducted, linear regression is considered effective for forecasting production with a stable pattern, while for production with a fluctuating pattern, the Exponential Smoothing method provides more accurate results. To detect prediction accuracy, several methods are used, such as MAD, MSE, and MAPE. The challenges in production forecasting include the availability of raw materials, demand variations, seasonal patterns, and data processing. Therefore, to improve production planning, companies must adjust and changing the forecasting model they use to better match real-world conditions.